Q4 Housing Prices are in and Those Number are Moving Up!

Housing up

The latest housing market report reveals promising trends nationwide, with an uptick observed in the fourth quarter. Data from the National Association of Realtors indicates that a significant 86% of the 221 Metropolitan areas tracked experienced growth during this period. Overall, there was a notable 3.5% rise in the housing market nationwide.

One of the key factors contributing to this surge is the reduction in interest rates. From the third quarter’s 7.79%, interest rates pulled back to a national average of 6.61% in the fourth quarter. This decline in interest rates has empowered buyers by enhancing their purchasing power, allowing them to allocate more towards their home investments.

As the housing market continues to evolve, these favorable conditions present opportunities for both buyers and sellers to capitalize on the market dynamics. Stay updated with the latest real estate trends and insights to make informed decisions in this dynamic landscape.

To REIT or not to REIT

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REIT(Real Estate Investment Trust)-A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company that owns, operates, or finances income-generating real estate.

To REIT or not to REIT.  

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) serve as a strategic avenue for investors to tap into real estate markets without the complexities of direct property acquisition, management, or financing. Within the realm of REITs, investors can explore various options, including Equity REITs, Mortgage REITs, and Hybrid REITs, each offering distinctive advantages.

Equity REITs primarily involve ownership of income-generating properties, while Mortgage REITs focus on financing real estate transactions, often through mortgages and mortgage-backed securities. Hybrid REITs, as the name suggests, combine elements of both equity and mortgage REITs, providing a diversified approach to real estate investment.

Clients frequently inquire about the safety, consistency, and functionality of these investment forms. However, there is no one-size-fits-all answer. The decision to pursue a REIT depends on various factors, including financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment strategy.

On one hand, investing in REITs can be a secure and consistent way to diversify a portfolio, offering exposure to real estate markets that might otherwise be challenging for individual investors to access. These trusts often distribute a significant portion of their income to shareholders, making them appealing for income-focused investors.

On the other hand, like any investment, REITs come with risks. Market fluctuations, interest rate changes, and economic downturns can impact the performance of REITs. Additionally, the specific type of REIT chosen can influence its risk profile.

In navigating the complex landscape of real estate investment, it’s crucial for investors to conduct thorough research, consider their financial objectives, and consult with financial professionals. While REITs present opportunities for diversification and potential returns, a nuanced understanding of their dynamics and associated risks is essential for making informed investment decisions.

 

The Much Needed Spring Market Inventory Thaw

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In the wake of interest rates reaching an 8% peak in October, the real estate landscape has experienced a significant 25% pullback, providing a breath of relief for potential homebuyers. This favorable adjustment is reflected in a notable 6% weekly and 3% monthly uptick in mortgage applications, signaling a renewed interest in the housing market. However, when observed annually, these application metrics still show a -16% decline.

The pressing question on everyone’s mind is whether this shift in interest rates will translate into increased inventory come spring, marking a potential thaw in the market. While analytics from the initial weeks of January offer only modest support for heightened activity, it’s crucial to note that January tends to be a quieter period in the real estate calendar.

Drawing from my firsthand experience, I’ve observed a noticeable surge in potential buyers attending open houses and engaging in private tours compared to six months ago. Multiple offers are becoming increasingly common for homes that are appropriately priced, highlighting the evident demand from buyers. However, the challenge lies in stimulating more sellers to enter the market.

Although the market is in dire need of increased inventory, the question remains: what would motivate homeowners to depart from their existing 3% loans for properties with an extra bedroom or a larger lot? In my assessment, a continued reduction in interest rates is the key. Sellers may be more inclined to take the leap if rates can reach the enticing range of 4.75% to 5.35%. Encouragingly, with the Federal Reserve hinting at multiple rate cuts in the future, there is optimism that we could reach this favorable range by early summer. As we navigate this dynamic real estate landscape, the interplay of interest rates and seller confidence will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of the market in the coming months. Stay tuned for updates on this evolving scenario.

 

The Ghost Market

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The slang term “ghosting” refers to when someone abruptly cuts off all communication without any explanation. Interestingly, this meaning seems fitting when considering the current state of the real estate market. In the first half of 2023, less than 2% of homes in the U.S. changed ownership. This statistic translates to a mere 14 homes out of every 1,000 being bought and sold. The only difference between this statistic and being “ghosted” is that we have a better understanding of the underlying causes.

One of the main reasons for this limited activity in the real estate market is the sharp increase in interest rates. Many sellers are reevaluating their plans to upgrade to larger properties, seek different locations, or add additional bedrooms due to the significant spike in interest rates. Additionally, the fact that homes are selling for approximately 40% more than they did before the pandemic has created a quandary for prospective homebuyers. The combination of soaring interest rates and inflated prices has created a challenging situation for those hoping to enter the market.

The next question that arises is how this situation can change. There are potential solutions that could trigger a shift in the market, such as federal and state tax breaks for sellers or a resurgence of new home builders as inflation begins to subside. These measures could help increase inventory, which is crucial to revitalizing the dream of many families to purchase their dream homes.

It is essential for the market to experience a boost in inventory soon, as this would provide more opportunities for prospective buyers and help alleviate some of the challenges they currently face. Families and individuals are eagerly waiting for the chance to make their homeownership dreams a reality. By implementing measures that stimulate inventory growth and improve affordability, the real estate market can regain its vitality and offer renewed hope to aspiring homeowners.

In conclusion, the current state of the real estate market resembles the concept of being “ghosted,” with minimal activity and limited transactions taking place. The spike in interest rates and soaring home prices have presented obstacles for both buyers and sellers. However, there are potential solutions and measures that can be implemented to address these challenges and bring about positive changes in the market. By fostering an increase in inventory and improving affordability, the dream of purchasing a home can be reignited for many families.

Will There be a Fire Sale Soon for AirBNB Owners?

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During the pandemic, buying and operating an Airbnb proved to be one of the most profitable side hustles available. As restrictions eased, there was a surge in demand as people eagerly sought opportunities to escape their everyday routines. The year 2021 proved to be exceptionally successful for Airbnb owners, with discretionary income and the desire to travel reaching new heights. However, the landscape dramatically shifted in 2022 as the Federal Reserve increased interest rates and the overall economy experienced a tightening effect on discretionary incomes across the country. Consequently, some of the hottest rental markets, including Phoenix, Austin, and Nashville, faced a significant decline in occupancy rates ranging between 38% and 50%. This decline has turned into a nightmarish scenario for Airbnb owners who purchased properties at the peak of the market in 2021.

The pandemic presented a unique opportunity for those seeking additional income streams to capitalize on the popularity of short-term rentals. The allure of generating substantial profits from vacation rentals was particularly attractive when travel restrictions were lifted, and people were eager to explore new destinations. However, the shifting economic landscape in 2022 has led to a challenging situation for Airbnb owners, especially those who entered the market at its peak.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates has had a domino effect on the economy, impacting discretionary incomes. As the cost of borrowing increased, individuals had less disposable income to spend on travel and accommodation. This tightening effect has been felt in various rental markets across the country, with occupancy rates plummeting significantly. Locations like Phoenix, Austin, and Nashville, which were previously thriving hotspots, have experienced a substantial decline in occupancy rates, leaving Airbnb owners in a state of distress.

For those who purchased properties during the peak of the market in 2021, the situation has become even more challenging. The decline in occupancy rates has directly impacted their rental income and profitability. As the market adjusts to these new dynamics, many Airbnb owners are left grappling with the harsh reality of decreased bookings and reduced revenue.

In conclusion, while operating an Airbnb proved to be a lucrative side hustle during the pandemic, the landscape shifted in 2022. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and economic tightening have resulted in a significant decline in occupancy rates across popular rental markets. This downturn has created a nightmare scenario for Airbnb owners who purchased properties at the height of the market in 2021. As the market evolves, it will be crucial for owners to adapt their strategies, explore alternative revenue streams, and assess the long-term viability of their Airbnb investments.

Mike Ward

415 328 9129   mikewardre@gmail.com   License # 01863240

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